Trump needs to pick fights he can win
Trump’s biggest mistake so far has been to pick a fight with the law. Even Neil Gorsuch, whom Trump has just nominated for elevation to the Supreme Court, couldn’t bite his lip, injudiciously telling Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal that Trump’s judge-bashing tweets were “disheartening” and “demoralizing.” The lesson is that a would-be transformative leader — who is bound to face shrill opposition — needs to pick fights he can win.Think back the first year of Margaret Thatcher’s government. She, too, did not start off as a popular prime minister and her anti-inflationary policies for a time made matters worse. Many thought she would not survive to fight another election. But she was vindicated on inflation, which proved to be a beatable foe; she broke the siege of the Iranian embassy, sending the SAS in against the Iranian Arab group that had occupied the building; she resisted the blackmail of the IRA hunger strikers, refusing their demand to have the status of political prisoners; and, of course, she kicked the Argentinians out of the Falklands. Four wins. Four beatable adversaries.
Trump’s presidency could go into freefall if he does not secure some comparable victories in the coming year. Populist voters are fickle. Conversely, however, if he does get some points on the scoreboard, his popularity could soar as Thatcher’s did in time to win the 1983 election.
That’s why Trump would be much smarter to start fighting a different kind of law: sharia law. There are Islamist enemies within (the Muslim Brotherhood) and without (Iran) who look eminently beatable. I see a much more credible strategy of resisting Islamic extremism than the inept “Muslim ban,” which has actually driven liberals into the camp of the Islamists. Better to clamp down on the activities of the numerous Islamist organizations inside the United States, who are busily targeting the Muslims already in America while Trump expends energy on fruitless litigation.
I also see a strategic opportunity to isolate Iran over its missile tests and military interventions in Syria and Yemen. I am hoping Defense Secretary James Mattis has been settling nerves in the Far East partly in order to get serious about the Middle East.
Of course, wins such as these won’t suffice if Trump fails to deliver on his economic promises. The overwhelming majority of economists currently see growth coming in below 2.5 percent this year. But economists are not esteemed the way judges are, and if Trump fights economics he might just be the one who wins. His promise on Thursday of a “phenomenal” tax reform plan sent a thrill through both Wall Street and Main Street. According to the latest available survey, 80 percent of business owners and executives expect US business conditions to improve this year, nearly twice as many as this time last year. If that translates into a surge in investment, Trump could start looking like Tom Brady.
“I Fought the Law” is a song of resignation, an admission of defeat. “I left my baby and it feels so bad, / Guess my race is run.” By contrast, Tom Brady’s favorite pre-game tune is called “What’s Up,” which goes like this: “I try, oh my god do I try / I try all the time, in this institution / And I pray, oh my god do I pray / I pray every single day, for a revolution.” Could that be the theme tune of the Trump comeback? Don’t rule it out.
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