Members of the large third party brace for a fight.
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., speaks during an event at the University of Chicago on April 22.
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., may follow in his father’s footsteps not only by seeking the Republican presidential nomination, but also by receiving the Libertarian Party’s ballot line.
Members of the Libertarian Party are bracing for an internal struggle over whether to back the libertarian-leaning senator if he appears poised to win the Republican nomination in 2016.
Paul is unlikely to directly seek the third party’s support, but could win it anyhow through the work of eager activists like those who worked the campaigns of his father, former Texas Rep. Ron Paul, a GOP presidential contender in 2008 and 2012 and the Libertarian nominee in 1988.
A co-nomination from one of the nation’s most significant minor parties could help Paul - if he’s the Republican nominee - avoid losing hundreds of thousands of votes to an ideological ally. In some states, his name would appear twice on ballots.
[READ: The Emerging Rand Paul Doctrine: 'Selective' Force]
If Paul is nominated by both the Republican and Libertarian parties, it could also unleash electoral scenarios unseen in decades, such as the negotiation of a fusion slate of electors. Libertarians could, theoretically, nominate their own vice presidential candidate.
Though the Libertarian Party’s Orlando, Florida, nominating convention isn’t until May 2016, Libertarian National Committee Executive Director Wes Benedict foresees a fight.
“If Rand Paul wins the Republican nomination, I'd expect a big fight within the [party] over whether or not we should run our own candidate,” Benedict says. “It wouldn't just be a discussion.”
Libertarian Party chairman Nicholas Sarwark, officially neutral on the matter, says “there is a possibility that the delegates in Orlando would nominate Sen. Paul and if they were to do so, I'd work hard to support their choice.”
[ALSO: 47 Percent: A Good Number for Rand]
The Republican primary season will be well underway when the 1,000 or so Libertarian convention delegates gather. If Paul appears poised for victory in the GOP race, they would have several options.
Delegates could nominate Paul and his presumptive GOP running mate (if that person has been selected), or nominate Paul and a Libertarian running mate (as happened in 1896 when the Democratic and Populist parties nominated William Jennings Bryan for president, but chose different vice presidential candidates).
They could also choose to endorse no candidate, a scenario in which many would-be Libertarian voters would presumably vote for Paul without the party’s official blessing; or they could snub Paul and pick their own presidential candidate.
Though Paul is largely in line with the Libertarian rank-and-file on mass surveillance, militarized policing, government spending and taxes, criminal justice reform and foreign policy, his stance on social issues and immigration are unappetizing to some party members and his anticipated catering to the GOP mainstream may alienate others.
[MORE: Why Rand’s the Current 2016 GOP Front-Runner]
Benedict says he would prefer Libertarians to run their own candidate, someone who supports abortion rights and same-sex marriage.
Richard Winger, a ballot access expert who’s participated in Libertarian Party nominating conventions since the 1980s, says Paul supporters would need to strategize in advance of the Orlando convention, as delegates are selected by state parties.
Gaming Republican state conventions was a specialty of enthusiastic Ron Paul supporters, who in 2012 took over GOP organizations and flooded state conventions to score delegate wins for their libertarian hero. It’s unclear if these activists would put the same effort into infiltrating the Libertarian Party on behalf of Sen. Paul.
Winger says Paul probably would need to signal to Libertarians that he supports key party priorities. He recalls former Republican Rep. Bob Barr of Georgia, the party’s 2008 nominee, successfully doing so when he apologized authoring the Defense of Marriage Act and voting for the Patriot Act.
The Republican primary season may make that difficult, Already, Paul has taken positions that some Libertarians consider heresy, such as saying he would vote in favor of bombing the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq.
Barr, citing his experience winning the Libertarian nomination, advises Paul supporters to “work quietly within the Libertarian Party to identify real-world libertarians” who would rather boost the libertarian-leaning Republican than nominate an ideologically pure candidate.
Members of the Libertarian Party are bracing for an internal struggle over whether to back the libertarian-leaning senator if he appears poised to win the Republican nomination in 2016.
Paul is unlikely to directly seek the third party’s support, but could win it anyhow through the work of eager activists like those who worked the campaigns of his father, former Texas Rep. Ron Paul, a GOP presidential contender in 2008 and 2012 and the Libertarian nominee in 1988.
A co-nomination from one of the nation’s most significant minor parties could help Paul - if he’s the Republican nominee - avoid losing hundreds of thousands of votes to an ideological ally. In some states, his name would appear twice on ballots.
[READ: The Emerging Rand Paul Doctrine: 'Selective' Force]
If Paul is nominated by both the Republican and Libertarian parties, it could also unleash electoral scenarios unseen in decades, such as the negotiation of a fusion slate of electors. Libertarians could, theoretically, nominate their own vice presidential candidate.
Though the Libertarian Party’s Orlando, Florida, nominating convention isn’t until May 2016, Libertarian National Committee Executive Director Wes Benedict foresees a fight.
“If Rand Paul wins the Republican nomination, I'd expect a big fight within the [party] over whether or not we should run our own candidate,” Benedict says. “It wouldn't just be a discussion.”
Libertarian Party chairman Nicholas Sarwark, officially neutral on the matter, says “there is a possibility that the delegates in Orlando would nominate Sen. Paul and if they were to do so, I'd work hard to support their choice.”
[ALSO: 47 Percent: A Good Number for Rand]
The Republican primary season will be well underway when the 1,000 or so Libertarian convention delegates gather. If Paul appears poised for victory in the GOP race, they would have several options.
Delegates could nominate Paul and his presumptive GOP running mate (if that person has been selected), or nominate Paul and a Libertarian running mate (as happened in 1896 when the Democratic and Populist parties nominated William Jennings Bryan for president, but chose different vice presidential candidates).
They could also choose to endorse no candidate, a scenario in which many would-be Libertarian voters would presumably vote for Paul without the party’s official blessing; or they could snub Paul and pick their own presidential candidate.
Though Paul is largely in line with the Libertarian rank-and-file on mass surveillance, militarized policing, government spending and taxes, criminal justice reform and foreign policy, his stance on social issues and immigration are unappetizing to some party members and his anticipated catering to the GOP mainstream may alienate others.
[MORE: Why Rand’s the Current 2016 GOP Front-Runner]
Benedict says he would prefer Libertarians to run their own candidate, someone who supports abortion rights and same-sex marriage.
Richard Winger, a ballot access expert who’s participated in Libertarian Party nominating conventions since the 1980s, says Paul supporters would need to strategize in advance of the Orlando convention, as delegates are selected by state parties.
Gaming Republican state conventions was a specialty of enthusiastic Ron Paul supporters, who in 2012 took over GOP organizations and flooded state conventions to score delegate wins for their libertarian hero. It’s unclear if these activists would put the same effort into infiltrating the Libertarian Party on behalf of Sen. Paul.
Winger says Paul probably would need to signal to Libertarians that he supports key party priorities. He recalls former Republican Rep. Bob Barr of Georgia, the party’s 2008 nominee, successfully doing so when he apologized authoring the Defense of Marriage Act and voting for the Patriot Act.
The Republican primary season may make that difficult, Already, Paul has taken positions that some Libertarians consider heresy, such as saying he would vote in favor of bombing the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq.
Barr, citing his experience winning the Libertarian nomination, advises Paul supporters to “work quietly within the Libertarian Party to identify real-world libertarians” who would rather boost the libertarian-leaning Republican than nominate an ideologically pure candidate.
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