John Browne
Brexit and the Donald Trump presidential victory should rightly be
viewed as the most significant international developments of the last
decade. Both events illustrate a breaking down of globalist order and
they both threaten the entrenched elite that has so ruthlessly and
painfully hurt the middle and working classes. But as Trump supporters
revel in the largely unanticipated victory, Brexit faces a serious new
challenge.
On November 3, 2016, The English High Court ruled that the UK’s
withdrawal from the EU would affect substantially the “rights of
individuals within the UK.” As a result, the Court concluded that
despite the referendum, and the “Crown prerogative” that grants the
Government considerable leeway, particularly in matters of foreign
affairs, the decision to leave the EU must be made by Parliament. Given
that the government has made many decisions to increase the
UK’s “ever-closer” integration into the EU over the years, which clearly
affected the “rights of UK individuals,” it is curious that the Court
would finally decide to step in when the government was moving in the
other direction.
The May Government has announced that it will appeal to the UK’s
Supreme Court. Some lawyers advise that should the Supreme Court
overrule the High Court, the Claimants might appeal still to the
European Court of Human Rights under the Human Rights Act 1998. Whether
this Court would accept jurisdiction is unclear.
Regardless, the current Government and the Brexit camp are shocked
and angry at the High Court’s ruling. They are joined by powerful
sections of the UK’s mass media including the Daily Mail which has labeled the High Court as being “Enemies of The People” (James Slack, 11/3/16).
If the Supreme Court upholds the High Court decision, it is likely
that Prime Minister May will have to consult Parliament. She is unlikely
to find there a receptive audience. According to Business Insider some
73 percent of the 650 Members of the House of Commons, and probably a
greater percentage of Peers in the House of Lords, were and probably are
still in favor of remaining in the EU (Jim Edwards, 11/3/16). This
means that the members of Parliament can easily rise up and vote to
restore the order that they so clearly believe should be restored. But
will they be prepared to defy the will of the people? This is a tall
order for every politician.
They could argue that the public will has changed since the vote
and that the win was not all that decisive to begin with. Such arguments
will be politically perilous.
By 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent the British people voted for
Brexit (BBC News). However, this seemingly small margin led to 61
percent of the UK’s Parliamentary constituencies to vote for
Brexit, according to data from the University of East Anglia. It will
take very brave Conservative Members of Parliament to vote their
conscious to remain, thereby defying both their party whips, who control
their promotions within the Party, and the expressed will of their constituents who control their continued membership in
Parliament. Even Labour members who may desperately want to remain in
the EU, may be reticent to oppose the clear wishes of their voters to
leave. The fractured leadership of the Labour Party may not be able to
bring much pressure on wavering members to cast a “remain” vote. The
remain sentiment in the House of Lords appears even stronger than in
Commons. But if Prime Minister May were to add the threat of enacting
further reform of the House of Lords, it might bring enough peers into
line.
The remain case has been further weakened by the lack of
post-Brexit catastrophe forecast by Cameron and his allies before the
vote. Recent headlines confirm the return of optimism: the Telegraph published, “UK jobs market ‘thriving’ after summer pause.” City AM reported “Retail sales up in best month since January.” Meanwhile, financial markets appear to have stabilized.
Based on all this, it is hard to imagine that UK parliamentarians
will stage a quixotic last minute stand to resist the independence of
the UK.
Regardless, the EU negotiators may insist that to retain access to
EU markets the UK must open its boarders to EU immigrants, largely from
the Middle East. If unacceptable to the UK government, likely it will
result in a so-called “Hard Brexit” whereby the UK will be expelled.
Should this occur, it will not be the first time England has been
expelled from most of Europe. Should this occur, Britons should rejoice
as history has shown that England does well when it does not yoke
herself too closely to the Continent.
When King Henry VIII broke with the Church of Rome, England was
forced to trade worldwide. This put England into the exploration and
colonization business, which proved to be quite fruitful. When
Napoleon’s influence spread across the Continent in the early 19th Century,
Britain shut down European ports and looked to trade elsewhere. This
resulted in the largest accumulation of empire in England’s history,
allowing the small island nation to garner wealth, political influence
and military power on a global scale.
Under Brexit, I believe the UK will be free to trade worldwide on
terms that suit the UK’s economy rather than that of the 28-nation EU,
which has still no effective trade treaties with the U.S., China and
Japan.
First Brexit and now Trump have exposed powerful popular feelings
of deep resentment. An increasing number of voters feel ignored by what
they perceive as self-serving, uncaring and unresponsive rulers who have
created a political class that is cocooned away from the financial
realities which plague normal citizens. It is not a political party but,
as Trump describes, “it’s a movement.” Likely, it will threaten the
unraveling of conventional party politics in the U.S., the UK and the
EU.
Brexit and the U.S. election have clearly given momentum to the
anti-globalist world view. Such forces are also gaining ascendency in
Italy and France. However, the forces of globalization are extremely
powerful and deeply entrenched. They will surely fight back. The first
round will be in the UK Parliament. But no one knows where the fight
will progress.
John Browne is a Senior Economic Consultant to Euro Pacific Capital.
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